The Air is Getting Thinner for Bears – What’s Happening?
Bitcoin’s price is on fire, and according to experts, the bears (traders betting on Bitcoin’s price dropping) are running out of room to breathe. A leading analyst from the crypto exchange Swyftx, Pav Hundal, says the macro environment is now so pro-Bitcoin that new all-time highs (ATH) are almost inevitable by the end of March 2025.
Let’s break it down and understand why this matters.
Step 1: The Big Picture – Why Are Prices Going Up?
The market is moving in Bitcoin’s favor due to a combination of factors:
- US Election Volatility: The recent election cycle saw a spike in Bitcoin’s price, just like in previous elections. Historically, uncertainty and big political events drive investors toward Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.
- Trump’s Victory Effect: After Donald Trump won, Bitcoin skyrocketed past its previous ATH of $73,679, reaching $100,000 by Dec. 5.
- A Favorable Policy Environment: Analysts say we are entering one of the most crypto-friendly eras of policymaking in history, meaning governments might be easing regulations instead of tightening them.
Keyword to Remember: Macro environment – The overall economic and political situation that affects the entire market, not just Bitcoin.
Step 2: Volatility is Back – What Does That Mean for Bitcoin?
- Bitcoin is back to extreme volatility levels, similar to what we saw in November around the election.
- This means sudden and large price swings, which can be dangerous for traders who aren’t prepared.
- Right before Trump’s victory was confirmed, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $69,000, leading to $350 million in liquidations (meaning traders lost a lot of money because they bet the wrong way).
Keyword to Remember: Volatility – How much and how fast the price of Bitcoin moves up and down.
Step 3: Experts Are Split – Will Bitcoin Drop Before It Rises?
Some analysts say Bitcoin will keep climbing, while others think we might see a pullback before another major rally:
- Arthur Hayes (BitMEX Co-founder): Believes Bitcoin might drop to $70,000 – $75,000 in Q1, causing a mini financial crisis.
- Dr. Sean Dawson (Derive Research): Says there’s less than a 10% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $75,000.
What This Means for You:
- If Bitcoin drops, it might be a buying opportunity before it surges again.
- If Bitcoin keeps rising, we could be heading for new ATHs before Q2 even begins.
Keyword to Remember: All-Time High (ATH) – The highest price Bitcoin has ever reached. Right now, it’s around $102,000.
Why This Is Important for You
- If you trade or invest in Bitcoin, this is a crucial time to watch the market.
- Understanding the macro environment helps you predict where Bitcoin is heading.
- Volatility can be dangerous, but it also creates opportunities.
Final Thought: Bulls Are Winning – Will Bears Survive?
Bitcoin is currently trading at over $102,000, and if these trends continue, a new ATH could be just weeks away. The bears are running out of options, and the only question left is: how high will Bitcoin go before Q1 ends?
