As Bitcoin hovers near $60,000, many crypto traders are anxiously wondering if we’re on the verge of another explosive rally. Historically, Q4 has been a significant time for Bitcoin, especially in halving years. Traders, analysts, and investors alike are trying to determine if the final quarter of 2024 will be the turning point for a potential parabolic uptrend.
What the History of Bitcoin Tells Us Bitcoin has had an incredible start to 2024, gaining over 40% year-to-date, but the journey has been far from smooth. Despite hitting an all-time high earlier in the year, Bitcoin has struggled in recent months. After a sharp drop of 13% over the last 30 days, many traders are left questioning if the bull market is truly around the corner or if this is simply a moment of consolidation.
Peter Brandt, a veteran trader and market analyst, recently commented that the current cycle could be the longest in post-halving history. What does this mean for traders? Either the next all-time high will take longer to materialize, or perhaps, as Brandt hinted, it’s not guaranteed to happen at all. This creates a sense of anticipation and uncertainty for traders, who are weighing these factors before making their next move.
But there’s still hope. Historical data from CoinGlass suggests that Bitcoin has posted gains in eight out of the last 11 fourth quarters, with an impressive average gain of 88%. During halving years specifically, the fourth quarter has been particularly bullish, with Bitcoin surging 58% in 2016 and a whopping 168% in 2020. If this trend holds, there’s a 73% chance that Bitcoin could rally again in Q4 2024. So for those crypto traders who thrive on risk and reward, history might be on their side.
Are Whales Preparing for a Rally? Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, also pointed out that Bitcoin’s current price action is reminiscent of its behavior in 2020. During the last halving cycle, Bitcoin’s bull run started in Q4. Ju’s analysis suggests that whales – the large players in the market – are accumulating Bitcoin in preparation for a rally, possibly positioning themselves for another surge in price. He argues that whales won’t allow the fourth quarter to pass without creating some excitement.
For traders, this information is both exciting and nerve-wracking. If the big players are getting ready for a price surge, it could indicate that something significant is about to happen. But on the flip side, any misstep or unexpected market reaction could lead to sudden drops, and we’ve seen time and again how quickly the market can turn.
The Battle with Resistance However, Bitcoin is currently facing stiff resistance around the $59,500 to $61,300 range. This resistance is compounded by the fact that the price has been below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the past week. The 200-day EMA is considered a critical level that traders often use to gauge the long-term direction of an asset’s price. If Bitcoin can break above this key level, it could signal a new phase of bullish momentum.
But breaking through this resistance won’t be easy. Around 1.51 million addresses purchased 817,770 BTC in this price range, meaning that significant sell pressure could emerge as traders look to lock in profits. If Bitcoin fails to break past this resistance, it could fall back to lower support levels, with analysts like Mark Cullen suggesting that Bitcoin’s price could drop to $57,500, or even as low as $54,500.
What Should Traders Expect? For crypto traders, it’s a delicate balancing act between risk and reward. The possibility of a parabolic rally is enticing, especially with historical trends supporting the potential for gains in Q4. However, the risks remain high, and it’s essential to monitor the market closely.
This moment in Bitcoin’s history is pivotal. If the rally begins, those who have prepared and positioned themselves could see substantial gains. But if the price falters and fails to break through resistance, it may be time for traders to reassess their strategies and consider lower entry points.
As always in the world of crypto, nothing is guaranteed, but for those willing to take the leap, the fourth quarter of 2024 could be an exciting and transformative time.
